POLITICS / TOUGH RACES : Is It the Year of the Woman, or Is the Euphoria Premature?

FT. WORTH — Ann W. Richards drew rapturous applause at the state Democratic convention here recently when she scornfully derided those who still ask whether “Texans will . . . vote for a woman for governor.”

But the question remains an open one.

With Richards’ nomination and Dianne Feinstein’s victory in the California Democratic gubernatorial primary, many commentators have already proclaimed this the year of the woman in politics.

It may turn out that way--but this could also be a case of premature euphoria.

ONE EASY RACE SEEN: Women have made historic breakthroughs this year in obtaining nominations for senator and governor. But almost all of those women face difficult races against better-funded opponents or entrenched incumbents. Among the 11 major female nominees, only Kansas GOP Sen. Nancy Landon Kassebaum is an overwhelming favorite in November.

“We all get carried away with the excitement . . . but no one should fool themselves: These are very tough races,” said Wendy Sherman, executive director of EMILY’s List, an organization that raises money for women candidates.

Republicans have recruited three strong female U.S. representatives to run for the Senate, which has only two women members. But Lynn Martin of Illinois and Claudine Schneider of Rhode Island--although expected to eventually run strong races--both trailed by double digits in recent polls. Patricia F. Saiki is running better in Hawaii, but the state favors Democrats. Two other Republican women have little hope against popular Democratic senators in New Jersey and Delaware.

The situation in governors’ races may be even less promising overall.

Republican Barbara Hafer is given virtually no chance in Pennsylvania; Democrat Barbara Roberts trails in Oregon. Feinstein, who many consider the strongest woman gubernatorial nominee, begins with more charisma but less money than Republican Sen. Pete Wilson. Recent polls show Richards 8 to 12 points behind another free-spending Republican, businessman Clayton Williams.

With two of the three sitting female governors stepping down, and the third--Republican Kay A. Orr of Nebraska--trailing in her battle for a second term, it is even possible that this election will reduce the number of women governors.

The problems and opportunities for women candidates were equally displayed at the Texas convention. The loud applause for Richards’ affirmations of abortion rights was a reminder of how much enthusiasm the issue is generating for women’s candidacies.

And, when surrounded on stage by the men who dominate the rest of the Texas Democratic ticket, Richards provided a strikingly tangible symbol of change: Like many of the women seeking office this year, she should benefit from being viewed as something different at a time when voters may be looking for that.

GOP ADVANTAGE: But Williams, for all his exaggerated good ol’ boy machismo, is just as much an outsider--the cowboy riding in to reclaim Texas from the pencil pushers. Many Democrats here believe that, to catch Williams in a state increasingly leaning Republican, Richards will need to sharpen her appeal.

Moreover, many men still doubt women are tough enough to handle a chief executive’s job, said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

That skepticism looms larger in general elections. Women increasingly dominate Democratic primaries but historically cast relatively fewer votes in November.

As a result, unless Richards can improve her showing among men--who lean heavily toward Williams in the early polls--there are likely to be a great number of disappointed women here next fall.