Summer Power Supply Looks Good

SACRAMENTO — Power blackouts should not be a threat this summer, say California’s electricity grid operators.

New power plants, continued conservation and abundant mountain runoff at hydroelectric plants should allow the state to get through summer without emergency alerts and blackouts, said Jim Detmers, vice president of operations at the California Independent System Operator.

Based east of Sacramento in Folsom, Cal-ISO oversees the flow of electricity on a transmission grid serving 30 million people.

But getting the electricity wasn’t always easy in 2000 and 2001, when Cal-ISO struggled on dozens of days to keep enough power flowing. On seven days in spring and winter of last year, Cal-ISO intentionally triggered blackouts to avoid crashing large sections of the transmission grid.

Experts predicted that last summer’s hot temperatures, when air conditioning boosts electricity consumption, would make blackouts a part of life in California. But long-term power contracts hurriedly signed by the state and unexpectedly strong conservation helped prevent blackouts. On some days, the state’s total conservation reached 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, as much electricity as it takes several major power plants to produce.

There may be hot days this summer when the cumulative effect of millions of Californians dimming lights and easing up on air conditioning makes a critical difference to grid operators, especially in the critical hours of 4 p.m. to 6 p.m., Detmers said. But overall, he said, the state’s power supply is dramatically improved since 2001.

New power plants capable of producing enough electricity to supply nearly 1 million homes should be finished between now and summer, said Detmers, and more abundant water supplies at big federal hydroelectric plants in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California will be capable of churning out more electricity than they did during last year’s dry conditions.

Detmers said he expects the demand for electricity in the Cal-ISO territory to peak between 42,000 and 45,500 megawatts. A megawatt is enough power to supply roughly 750 homes.

Long-term, the state’s electricity picture is more clouded. More than 62 power plant projects capable of supplying 3.5 million people have been canceled or deferred in the past year, Detmers said. To stay in step with demand, Cal-ISO figures the state should be adding enough new capacity each year to serve 750,000 to 1 million homes.