Chinese planning to build jetliner

China’s long-held goal of developing a jetliner for the world market may finally take wing. But will it fly?

The Chinese government said it planned to set up a state-owned company to build a 150-seat airliner that would compete with planes from industry leaders Boeing Co. and Airbus, which account for about 90% of global commercial aircraft sales.

Analysts said the plane would be able to tap into what was expected to be robust growth in global air travel over the next two decades, particularly in Asia. Chinese airlines, likely customers for locally produced aircraft, are expected to need more than 2,500 large airliners during that time.

“There’s no question that every airplane that is purchased from a homegrown company is an airplane that is not sold by Airbus or Boeing,” said Scott Hamilton, an aviation consultant with Leeham Co. in Issaquah, Wash.

But Hamilton and others said it could take China 10 years or more to develop a jet to compete with the similarly sized Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 on world markets. And it could take even longer to offer a full lineup of commercial aircraft. It was decades before Airbus, launched in the early 1970s as a consortium of European aircraft makers, was able to field a broad range of aircraft types.

Producing a plane as technologically advanced as Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner or Airbus’ giant A380 -- which made its maiden flights to the U.S. on Monday -- could be even tougher.

“They may get it in 20 years, but then they’ll be 20 years behind” the other manufacturers, said Nicholas Lardy, a China expert at the Institute for International Economics in Washington.

In a statement posted on an official website Sunday, the Chinese government said top officials had approved the jetliner development program late last month.

“Building a large aircraft is an important strategic decision of the Communist Party and the State Council, and it has been the desire of all Chinese people for many years,” the statement said.

China’s past attempts to develop a viable commercial aircraft program have been “a history of problems and false starts,” said Loren Thompson, an analyst with the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va. One example: A joint venture with McDonnell Douglas to build MD-80s in Shanghai during the 1990s was plagued with problems and contributed to the American company’s demise.

But the nation’s emergence as a major industrial power, coupled with its specific expertise in aerospace, makes it more likely that something will come of the effort this time around.

Much of that expertise has been gained by performing aircraft work outsourced by Boeing and Airbus. Parts for Boeing 737 tail sections, for instance, are produced in China. In addition, China is partnering with Airbus on a state-of-the-art aircraft assembly line in Tianjin.

“They have been making components for Boeing and Airbus for some time,” Hamilton noted. “It was only a matter of time before they would make a real effort to build an airplane.”

In addition, China is producing a 100-seat regional jet -- with imported avionics and engines -- that is expected to be flying in 18 months, Lardy said.

“It’s an incremental process -- start with smaller-scale, less-sophisticated products and work your way up,” he said. It’s a strategy China has followed in other industries, such as semiconductors and autos.

Chicago-based Boeing is the largest private employer in Southern California, but most of the jobs are defense-related. The company said Monday that “competition has always been good for the aviation business.” Airbus representatives could not be reached for comment.

China may not be the only source of competition in the future. Japan, which has long had ambitions of being a major player in aerospace, is backing efforts by private industry to develop and market a jetliner. Russia has set up a consortium of its own aircraft companies that it hopes eventually will sell to the global market.

Analysts said it was likely that Boeing would take seriously any threat from across the Pacific or elsewhere. They noted that Airbus, after its early struggles, eventually wrested the No. 1 spot in annual aircraft orders from the U.S. plane maker. Boeing finally won the crown back last year on the strength of robust demand for its 787.

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